Thursday, 28 May 2009

Have you missed Silver rally above 14.75 Cents ?

Dear Members,

 

Remarkable call on Silver once again, if you have missed it gets registered today!!

 

 

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CommodityDaily

Commodity,Forex,Equity - News, Technical Analysis, Trading Advise on MCX,NCDEX,CME,LME,CBOT,LIFFE,DGCX,COMEX, NYMEX.

By: Commodity Daily

Members: 658

 

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Silver on fire as indicated earlier above 14.75 cents, if you have bought enjoy the profit :) 5 minutes ago

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Member from Singapore can email their details on investmentdaily@gmail.com to get free sms 1 day ago

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Although the Silver has crossed 14.75 cents, the daily chart indicate overbought position. 2 days ago

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Reminder: Silver might cross 14.75 cents today, be alert. Target is 16 cents above 14.75(close) 3 days ago

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Will it be another black Monday today? Hang -1.31%, Nikki -2.79%, STI -0.84% ....... 10 days ago

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NFA and CFTC have introduced a new anti-hedging rule which apply to all us brokers on15 may 2009 14 days ago

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Indian market is on the way to fill the gap we have indicated earlier, we have 90% success ratio 17 days ago

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Nifty immediate resistance 3774 and sup 3557, overbought in daily charts, some correction on board 19 days ago

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Dow Jones Immediate Resistance @ 8640 and support in range of 8370- 8325 (Very good sup monthly) 19 days ago

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we provide nifty and other indexes analysis, contact investmentdaily@gmail.com 19 days ago

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Sensex sink from the resistance given earlier, It can fall further to feel gap @11425 watch closely 19 days ago

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All targets achieved in STI (Straits Times) given @ 1830 month ago, Currently trading @ 2005 (+4.4%) 24 days ago

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Next resistance in Sensex @12150 and 38.2% retracement level is 12801 sup range 11555-11435 24 days ago

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Gold seems to be range bound until it's cross and close above 905 levels, support at 865 24 days ago

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Sensex spurts 519 points (+4.18%) today after closing near the level given earlier 11440 24 days ago

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Displaying messages 1 - 15 of 800

 

 

Yours Sencierly,

Commodity Daily

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OnlineChat : "commoditydaily@gmail.com" , "Investmentdaily@gmail.com" Note- Members express their own view  & may be or may not be having investment or speculative positions in the commodity, please do not take it as buy or sell call, pl use  own judgments for buying or selling, after having discussion with your certified investment brokers or the person to whom u  have good level of confidence. once sentiment is changed from good to bad no good news work but bad news do work, investors must keep this in mind.


NEW INVESTORS SHOULD BE VERY CAREFUL.

 

 

Monday, 6 April 2009

Have you Missed the Rally in Stock Market (Sensex from 9950 to 10600 and STI 1700 to 1840) and fall in Gold ($940 to $885) ????? :)

Dear Members,

We have setup a live market calls for intraday, short term and long term markets, if you are from India you can register your mobile on our group
http://www.smsgupshup.com/groups/commoditydaily , If you are not from India still you can track live calls on the same link.

Take benefit of this free service and invest you money wisely to grow it like tree.

Don't forget to register on my Guestbook on http://commoditydaily.i8.com/fsguest.html , because some of our long term calls and investment advise only available to register members.

Happy Investing,
Commodity Daily

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OnlineChat : "commoditydaily@gmail.com" , "sgxdaily@gmail.com"
Note- Members express their own view  & may be or may not be having investment or speculative positions in the commodity, please do not take it as buy or sell call, pl use  own judgments for buying or selling, after having discussion with your certified investment brokers or the person to whom u  have good level of confidence. once sentiment is changed from good to bad no good news work but bad news do work, investors must keep this in mind.
NEW INVESTORS SHOULD BE VERY CAREFUL.

Monday, 30 March 2009

Copper Preliminary Data - 2008 by ICSG

Dear Members,

 

Copper: Preliminary Data for 2008

 

The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) released preliminary data for 2008 for world copper supply and demand in its March 2009 Copper Bulletin.  The Bulletin is available for sale upon request.

According to the preliminary ICSG data, including revisions to data previously presented, the refined copper market balance for the full year 2008 indicated a market surplus of about 360,000 metric tonnes (t). The deficit of about 140,000 t in the 1st half of the year was more than offset by a surplus of around 500,000 t in the 2nd half of the year. The 2008 market surplus compares with a surplus of around 290,000 t for 2007.  In December, weaker holiday-period usage in the United States and the European Union and weaker usage in Japan resulted in a large apparent monthly surplus of around 170,000 t.

World refined copper usage is estimated to have increased by 2.2% (387,000 t) in 2008 compared with usage in 2007.  World usage growth was mainly driven by China, where apparent usage grew by 14%.  Without China, world usage actually decreased by 2% mainly impacted by depressed usage in the other three major consuming regions, the EU-15 countries, Japan, and the United States, where it decreased by 6%, 5.4%, and 8.7%, respectively. On a regional basis, usage increased in Africa, Asia (incl. China) and Oceania by 7.1%, 7.2% and 3.2% respectively, and decreased in the Americas (-3.7%) and in Europe (-3.3%).  Note that China’s apparent copper usage is based only on reported data (production + net trade +/- SHFE stock changes+/-industry stock changes, if reported ) and does not take into account changes in unreported stocks [State Reserve Bureau (SRB), producer, consumer and merchant/trader], which may be significant during periods of stocking or de-stocking.

World mine production in 2008 remained unchanged as compared to the 2007 level; concentrate production was down by 108,000 t
(-0.9%) while solvent extraction-electro winning (SX-EW) was up by around 107,000 t (+3.5%). Operational failures, labour unrest and lower ore grades
resulted in stagnant production levels that did not keep pace with capacity growth.  As a result, and based in ICSG production capacity data, the average global mine capacity utilization rate fell to about 82.3% in 2008, the lowest level since 1989. Although mine output increased in China, Congo, Peru and the United States, world mine production was mainly affected by lower output in major producing countries such as Chile (-4%), Indonesia (-17%) and Mexico (-27%).  On a regional basis, mine production was up in Africa (13%), down in America (-1%), and practically unchanged in Asia, Europe and Oceania.

Total world refined production increased by 2.6% (465,000 t) in 2008 compared with refined production in 2007: primary production was up by 3.2% and secondary production (from scrap) was down by 1%.  China was the biggest contributor to growth (9.4%) due to the expansion of its copper refinery capacity. Production was down in several countries including India, Japan, South Korea and the United States, where output was affected by operational failures, adverse weather conditions and maintenance shutdowns. However, those decreases were more than offset by increases in other countries such Australia, Chile, China, Congo, Peru and the Scandinavian countries. On a year-on-year basis, refined production was down in Africa (-3.5%) and North America (-1.1%) but up in all remaining regions: Latin America (4.7%), Asia (2.2%), Europe (3%) and Oceania (14%). The average global refined capacity utilization was about 82% in 2008 slightly below the average of recent years.

The average LME cash price for February 2009 was US$3,314.73 per tonne, up from the January 2009 average of US$3,220.69 per tonne. The 2009 high and low copper prices through the end of February were US$3,527.00 and US$3,050.00 per tonne, respectively, and the average was US$3,266.56 per tonne. As of the end February 2009, copper stocks held at the major metal exchanges (LME, COMEX, SHFE) totalled 606,107 t, an increase of 216,424 t from stocks held at the end of December 2008.  Stocks were up at all three exchanges.

World Refined Copper Usage and Supply Trends, 2002-2008

Thousand metric tonnes, copper

Due to the nature of statistical reporting, the published data should be considered as preliminary as some figures are currently based on estimates and could change. p/ preliminary,      1/ Based on EU apparent usage.      2/ Surplus/deficit is calculated using refined production minus refined usage.      3/ Surplus/deficit is calculated using seasonally adjusted refined production minus seasonally adjusted refined usage.

 

 

Yours Sencierly,

Commodity Daily

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OnlineChat : "commoditydaily@gmail.com" , "sgxdaily@gmail.com" Note- Members express their own view  & may be or may not be having investment or speculative positions in the commodity, please do not take it as buy or sell call, pl use  own judgments for buying or selling, after having discussion with your certified investment brokers or the person to whom u  have good level of confidence. once sentiment is changed from good to bad no good news work but bad news do work, investors must keep this in mind.


NEW INVESTORS SHOULD BE VERY CAREFUL.

 

 

Wednesday, 18 March 2009

Impact of US : FOMC meeting announcement , Wednesday 18 March 09 at 2.15 PM ET - Must Read

Fellow Members,

On basis of lots of inquire, i have try to explain the risk and impact of US Interest rate announcement on financial market below.

Definition           
The Federal Open Market Committee consists of the seven Governors of the Federal Reserve Board and five Federal Reserve Bank presidents. The FOMC meets eight times a year in order to determine the near-term direction of monetary policy. Changes in monetary policy are now announced immediately after FOMC meetings.

Description
The Fed determines interest rate policy at FOMC meetings. These meetings occur roughly every six weeks and are the single most influential event for the markets. For weeks in advance, market participants speculate about the possibility of an interest rate change -- or a change in the wording of the post-FOMC announcement that suggests a shift in policy -- at these meetings. If the outcome is different from expectations, the impact on the markets can be dramatic and far-reaching.
The interest rate set by the Fed, the federal funds rate, serves as a benchmark for all other rates. A change in the fed funds rate, the lending rate banks charge each other for the use of overnight funds, translates directly through to all other interest rates from Treasury bonds to mortgage loans. It also changes the dynamics of competition for investor dollars: when bonds yield 10 percent, they will attract more money away from stocks than when they only yield 5 percent.
The level of interest rates affects the economy. Higher interest rates tend to slow economic activity; lower interest rates stimulate economic activity. Either way, interest rates influence the sales environment. In the consumer sector, few homes or cars will be purchased when interest rates rise. Furthermore, interest rate costs are a significant factor for many businesses, particularly for companies with high debt loads or who have to finance high inventory levels. This interest cost has a direct impact on corporate profits. The bottom line is that higher interest rates are bearish for the financial markets, while lower interest rates are bullish.


Risk with News Trading

As with all major economic releases, there could be significant price volatility with this announcement.  Currency spreads will typically widen just before the release and will remain wide for a few minutes after.  If the announcement is a shock to the consensus estimate, the price of the currency pair could gap significantly.  For example, the price on the EURUSD trading at 1.2820 - 1.2822 just before release could gap up 60 pips to 1.2880 - 1.2882, without any available prices available between the price of 1.2820 and 1.2882.  A Buy Stop placed before the announcement at 1.2830 would turn into a Market Order and would be filled at the prevailing price 1.2882.  The same would be true with a Sell Stop.

Approximately four years ago we saw a gap of approximately 200 pips on the GBPUSD on a Non-Farm Payroll announcement.  While this is an extreme example, it nevertheless is a possibility with trading during economic announcements.  Consequently, plan on the spreads widening and, if you are trading with a Buy or a Sell Stop entry order, do not anticipate being filled at your entry price. You will be filled at the prevailing market price after the release, which could be significantly different from your desired price of your entry order. 

Happy Trading
Commodity Daily

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Note- Members express their own view  & may be or may not be having investment or speculative positions in the commodity, please do not take it as buy or sell call, pl use  own judgments for buying or selling, after having discussion with your certified investment brokers or the person to whom u  have good level of confidence. once sentiment is changed from good to bad no good news work but bad news do work, investors must keep this in mind.
NEW INVESTORS SHOULD BE VERY CAREFUL.

Wednesday, 18 February 2009

COMMODITY DAILY MCX PIVOTS - 18 FEB 2009

Dear Members,
 
After lots of request i have started again to post Daily Pivots points to Group.
Please find attached file for your reference.

Happy Trading,
Commodity Daily

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Note- Members express their own view  & may be or may not be having investment or speculative positions in the commodity, please do not take it as buy or sell call, pl use  own judgments for buying or selling, after having discussion with your certified investment brokers or the person to whom u  have good level of confidence. once sentiment is changed from good to bad no good news work but bad news do work, investors must keep this in mind.
NEW INVESTORS SHOULD BE VERY CAREFUL.

Monday, 16 February 2009

This is what motivates me - The Trust of my Members on Me - Thanks you Ravi

Dear Members,

I am happy by knowing the reason why Mr. Ravi wants to join our group.

2-4-2009 8:50 amfrom aol.ravi@gmail.com
I m a Invester in commodity Market. As viewing your past performance, i should say hats off to your research. As a such perfectionist i cant get better from anywhere. So i wish to join this group. Regards, Ravi Kulkarni 91+9921199100

Thanks Ravi for your compliments ! This words can not be bought by money.

--
Thanks,
Commodity Daily

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Note- Members express their own view  & may be or may not be having investment or speculative positions in the commodity, please do not take it as buy or sell call, pl use  own judgments for buying or selling, after having discussion with your certified investment brokers or the person to whom u  have good level of confidence. once sentiment is changed from good to bad no good news work but bad news do work, investors must keep this in mind.
NEW INVESTORS SHOULD BE VERY CAREFUL.

Commodity Budget - 2009

Dear Subscriber,

Mumbai: The Government stayed away from any announcements on the commodity futures market in the 2009-10 interim Budget fearing a political backlash as general elections are due in a few months, industry watchers said.

"It's was necessary for the government to avoid issues like relisting of rice, wheat futures and CTT (commodity transaction tax), to avoid controversies before elections," said Amar Singh, Head of Research, Angel Commodities Broking Pvt Ltd.

Indian commodity market stakeholders have long been waiting for resumption of trade in rice, wheat, urad and tur futures, which were banned in early 2007, for their alleged role in stoking inflation.

Trade and analyst expected some news on lifting of the ban on these commodities after government lifted a seven-month suspension on four other agri commodities on December 1, 2008, as food price inflation declined to comfortable levels.

"Though inflation is very comfortable and food stock looks satisfactory government was mum on the issue," said Singh.

"It could be because of elections. Government does not want to take any kind of chance," said Harish Galipelli, head of research at Karvy Comtrade Ltd.

The government is trying to rein in food prices ahead of nationwide elections that must be held by mid-May.

The ruling United Progressive Alliance (UPA)'s former coalition communist partner and many farmer organisations blame futures trade in commodities for stoking food prices.

Inflation has tumbled to 4.39 per cent at the end of January from a peak near 13 per cent last August, and economists said it will continue to fall for some time.

Acting Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee acknowledged India's food supply is sufficient and prices have come down, but did not touch upon the issue of resuming trade in four food commodities in his Budget speech.

Mukherjee said India procured a record 22.7 million tonnes of wheat and 28.5 million tonnes of rice in 2008, and its granaries are full. He further said the 2008-09 farm outlook is encouraging as weather was conducive for both rice and wheat.

The Minister also did not elaborate on the progress of implementation of CTT, which was imposed on commodity futures trade in 2008-09 Budget.

"The UPA Government has been very judicious in not announcing any changes in the functioning of commodity markets and other sectors because it's an interim budget," said Madan Sabnavis, chief economist with National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange.

Implementation of CTT is expected to impact volume in commodity trade as it will increase transaction costs.

"I believe any policy directive related to commodity futures market will come only after the new government comes in," Sabnavis said.

India, which allowed futures trading in commodities in 2003, has one of the fastest-growing commodity futures markets with 22 commodity exchanges.

Indian commodity futures trade rose 31.61 per cent to Rs 41.6 trillion during the first 10 months of financial year 2008-09, official data showed.





--
Thanks,
Commodity Daily

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Note- Members express their own view  & may be or may not be having investment or speculative positions in the commodity, please do not take it as buy or sell call, pl use  own judgments for buying or selling, after having discussion with your certified investment brokers or the person to whom u  have good level of confidence. once sentiment is changed from good to bad no good news work but bad news do work, investors must keep this in mind.
NEW INVESTORS SHOULD BE VERY CAREFUL.

Basic Budget glossary

Dear Members,

Basic Budget glossary - for your understanding : 
 Budget presentation is a grand affair only in India. Nowhere in the world, is so much importance rendered to the presentation of a simple document, which details the Government's receipts and payments.

The Budget is a detailed plan for a measured period, setting goals and outlining resources to meet them. It also gives details of tax revenues and other receipts besides a general break-up of expenditure, allocation of plan outlays by sectors as well as by various ministries.

But the complicated document has more technical words in it. Read on for explanations for some of them that feature in the hefty document.

AD-VALOREM DUTIES: Are the duties determined as a certain percentage of the price of the product.

APPROPRIATION BILL: A Bill that enables withdrawal of money from the Consolidated Fund to pay off expenses. These are instruments that Parliament clears after the demand for grants has been voted by the Lok Sabha.

BUDGET DEFICIT: A situation that arises when expenses exceed revenues. Here the entire budgetary exercise falls short of allocating enough funds to a certain area.

BUDGET ESTIMATES: Are estimates of Government spending on various sectors during the year, together with an estimate of the income in the form of tax revenues. These estimates contain an estimate of Fiscal Deficit and the Revenue Deficit for the year.

CAPITAL GOODS: Are goods that are used in the manufacturing of finished products.

CAPITAL BUDGET: Consists of capital receipts and payments, loans and advances granted by the Union Government to State and Union Territory governments, Government companies, corporations and other parties. This also accounts for Market loans, borrowings from the Reserve Bank of India and other institutions through the sale of Treasury Bills and loans acquired from foreign governments.

CAPITAL PAYMENTS: Are expenses incurred on acquisition of assets.

CAPITAL EXPENDITURE: Is the expenditure on acquisition of assets such as land, building and machinery, and also investments in shares, etc. Other items that also fall under this category include, loans and advances sanctioned by the Center to State governments, union territories and public sector undertakings.

CAPITAL RECEIPT: Are loans raised by the Government from the public (often referred to as Market loans); borrowings by the Governmentfrom the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and other parties through sale of Treasury Bills; loans received from foreign governments and bodies; and recoveries of loans granted by the Union Government to State governments, Union Territories and other parties. It can also include the proceeds from divestment of Government Equity in public enterprises.

CENVAT: A replacement for the earlier MODVAT scheme and is meant for reducing the cascading effect of indirect taxes on finished products. The scheme is a more extensive one with most goods brought under its preview.

COUNTERVAILING DUTIES: Are levied on imports that may lead to price rise in the domestic Market. It is imposed with the intention of discouraging unfair trading practices by other countries.

CONSOLIDATED FUND: Comprises of all revenues received byGovernment, the loans raised by it, and receipts from recoveries of loans granted by it.

CONTINGENCY FUND: Is the fund into which the Government utilises to meet emergencies or unforeseen expenditures, especially when it cannot wait for authorisation by Parliament. The Contingency Fund is placed at the disposal of the President for such financial exigencies. The amount that is withdrawn from the fund is recouped from Consolidated Fund.

CURRENT Account DEFICIT: Is the difference between the nation's exports and imports.

CUSTOM DUTIES: Levies on goods imported to or exported from the country.

CENTRAL PLAN: Centre's budgetary support to the Plan including the internal and extra budgetary resources raised by the Public Sector Undertakings.

DIRECT TAXES: Taxes directly imposed on the customers such as Income Tax and Corporate Tax.

DISINVESTMENT: Dilution of the Government�s stake in Public Sector Undertakings.

DEMAND FOR GRANTS: A statement of expenditure estimate from the Consolidated Fund that requires the approval of the Lok Sabha.

EXCISE DUTIES: Duties imposed on goods manufactured within the country.

FISCAL DEFICIT: Difference between the Revenue Receipts and Total Expenditure.

Finance BILL: Government�s plans for imposing new taxes, modifying of the existing tax structure or continuing the existing tax structure beyond the period approved by the Parliament.

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT: Total Market value of the goods and services manufactured within the country in a financial year.

GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT: Total market value of the finished goods and services manufactured within the country in a given financial year along with income earned by the local residents from investments made abroad, minus the income earned by foreigners in the domestic Market.

INDIRECT TAXES: Taxes imposed on goods that are manufactured, imported or exported. Eg. Excise Duties, Custom Duties etc.

MODVAT: Modified Value Added Tax, introduced in 1986, is a tax for allowing relief to final manufacturers on the excise duty borne by their suppliers for goods manufactured by them. It has now been replaced by the CENVAT scheme.

MONETISED DEFICIT: Level of support provided by RBI to Centre�s borrowing programs.

NATIONAL DEBT: Debt owed by the Government as a result of earlier borrowing to Finance budget deficits.

NON-PLAN EXPENDITURE: Consists of Revenue and Capital Expenditure on interest payments, Defence Expenditure, subsidies, postal deficit, police, pensions, economic services, loans to public sector enterprises and loans as well as grants to State governments, Union territories and foreign governments.

PEAK RATE: Is the highest rate of Customs Duty applicable on an item.

PERFORMANCE BUDGET: Is a compilation of activities of different ministries and departments.

PLAN EXPENDITURE: Money given from the Government�s Accountfor the Central Plan is called Plan Expenditure. It consists of both Revenue Expenditure and Capital Expenditure, Central Assistance to States and Union Territories.

PLAN OUTLAY: is the amount for expenditure on projects, schemes and programs announced in the Plan. The money for the Plan Outlay is raised through budgetary support and internal and extra-budgetary resources. The budgetary support is also shown as plan expenditure inGovernment accounts.

PRIMARY DEFICIT: Fiscal Deficit minus Interest payments.

PROGRESSIVE TAX: is a tax where the rich pay a larger percentage of income than the poor.

PUBLIC ACCOUNT: Is an Account where money received through transactions not relating to consolidated fund is kept.

REGRESSIVE TAX: Is a tax in which the poor pay a larger percentage of income than the rich. Progressive Tax is the exact opposite of regressive tax.

REVENUE DEFICIT: Is the difference between Revenue Expenditure and Revenue Receipts.

REVENUE BUDGET: Consists of Revenue Receipts and Revenue Expenditure of the Government.

REVISED ESTIMATES: Is the difference between the Previous Budget Estimates and the actual expenditure, which is usually presented in the following Budget.

REVENUE EXPENDITURE: Expenditure that does not result in the creation of assets. This refers to the money spent on the normal functioning of the government departments and various other services such as interest charges on debt incurred by the Government.

REVENUE RECEIPT: consist of tax collected by the government and other receipts consisting of interest and dividend on investments made by government, fees and other receipts for services rendered by Government.

REVENUE SURPLUS: Is the excess of Revenue Receipts over Revenue Expenditure. It is the opposite of Revenue Deficit,

SUBSIDIES: Financial aid provided by the Center to individuals or a group of individuals to improve their skills or businesses.

TARIFF: Tax on imports.

TWIN DEFICITS: refers to the trade deficit and the Government budget deficit

VALUE-ADDED TAX: is a tax levied on a firm as a percentage of its value added, to avoid the multiplying effect of taxes as the product passes through different stages of production. The tax is based on the difference between the value of the output and the value of the inputs used to produce it. The aim is to tax a firm only for the value added by it to the inputs it is using for manufacturing its output.


--
Thanks,
Commodity Daily

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OnlineChat : "commoditydaily@gmail.com" , "sgxdaily@gmail.com"
Note- Members express their own view  & may be or may not be having investment or speculative positions in the commodity, please do not take it as buy or sell call, pl use  own judgments for buying or selling, after having discussion with your certified investment brokers or the person to whom u  have good level of confidence. once sentiment is changed from good to bad no good news work but bad news do work, investors must keep this in mind.
NEW INVESTORS SHOULD BE VERY CAREFUL.

Wednesday, 11 February 2009

Gold is a Safe-Haven amid Global Depression

Dear Members,

Gold is a Safe-Haven amid Global Depression

Gary Dorsch
Editor Global Money Trends magazine

Posted Feb 5, 2009

"If you want to continue to be the slaves of bankers, and pay the cost of your own slavery, then let bankers continue to create money and control credit," warned Sir Josiah Stamp, former chief of the Bank of England in 1927. Indeed, the world economy is now held hostage by an elite banking cartel, whose reckless pursuit of speculation and bloated profits, has precipitated a breakdown of the global financial system, and is plunging the world towards a "Great Depression."

The global economy will grind to a halt this year, the IMF predicts, after $ 30-trillion in market capitalization was erased from world stock markets since October 2007, in the wake of the worst banking crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930's. What began with the bursting of the US house price bubble, has so far, resulted in $1.2-trillion of losses and write-downs from toxic assets held by banks worldwide.

"Unless stronger financial strains and uncertainties are forcefully addressed, the pernicious feedback loop between real activity and financial markets will intensify, leading to even more toxic effects on global growth," the IMF warned, predicting that bank losses could eventually peak at $2.2-trillion, and hobble the world economy in the year ahead. "Downside risks continue to dominate, as the scale and scope of the current financial crisis has taken the global economy into uncharted waters, triggered by the collapse of bank credit and stock markets." the IMF said on January 28th.

Global trade collapsed by 45% in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, exposing the staggering depth of the global financial crisis. Speaking at Davos, Switzerland last week, Australian trade minister Simon Crean warned that falling global trade would compound the economic downturn. "If global trade is a multiplier in growth, it also has the potential to be a multiplier in reverse," he warned on Jan 31st.

The Baltic Cape-Size Index, which measures the cost of shipping coal, iron ore, and steel across the high-seas, is still languishing 90% below its record high of 19,200-points set in May 2007. Global bankers suspended issuing "letters of credit" that importers and exporters rely upon to finance overseas trade. Of the $14.5-trillion of cargo that is shipped across the high-seas each year, roughly 90% is financed with "letters of credit," issued by bankers, guaranteeing payment to the shipper, once shipments are delivered to the buyer. With banks cutting-off "letters of credit," the wheels of global shipping have ground to a halt.

Global growth this year will come to a "virtual standstill," warned Olivier Blanchard, the IMF's chief economist,on January 28th. "We need stronger policy on the financial front," he said. Leading the Group of Seven nations into contraction will be the UK-economy, projected to slide 2.8%, Japan's economy will shrink 2.6% and the Euro-zone will lose 2%, followed by the US-economy, which will contract 1.6 percent. China's economy will slow to 6.7% growth, after peaking at 12.7% in Q'2, 2007.

There are indications that US President Obama is heeding the IMF's message, and is ready to exert pressure on the largest US-banks, and over time, could exercise more day-to-day control and scrutiny over their lending practices. Obama will require American bankers receiving cash from the Treasury's bail out fund, to commit to minimum levels of lending and place caps on executive pay and bonuses.

Shifting the focus from paying bonuses to Wall Street bankers, to reviving the US housing market and consumer spending, is the first step for escaping the economic death spiral. Citigroup, under government pressure to increase its lending, says it will use $36.5-billion to issue mortgages, make credit card loans, and buy distressed assets in the tight credit markets in the coming months.

A reeling US-economy has also translated into severe pain for overseas markets.South Korea, the world's 13th largest economy, is among the most vulnerable to the global financial crisis. Although China is now Korea's largest trading partner, much of what China imports from Korea is re-exported to the global markets in the form of finished goods. Korea's exports to China plunged to $4.75-billion in December, or 35.4% lower from a year ago, despite a sharply weaker Korean-won. The last double-digit drop of exports was in 2002, amid the bursting of the dot.com bubble.

Korea's economy is a key bellwether of the global economy, since exports are equivalent to 52% of its gross domestic product. Preliminary reports indicate that exports continued to plunge in January, with shipments to the US declining 21.5%, exports to Europe plunging 47%, and sales to Latin America 36% lower than a year ago. Not surprisingly, Korea's GDP shrank 5.6% in the fourth quarter from the previous three months, the biggest drop since 1998.

Korea's industrial output plunged 9.6% in December, slipping for a sixth consecutive month, as Hyundai Motor, Hynix Semiconductor, and steelmaker Posco reduced output in January, to cope with sagging demand. Samsung Electronics, the world's largest maker of memory chips, liquid-crystal displays and televisions, reported its first ever quarterly loss. Exports of semiconductors plunged 47% in January from a year earlier, and automobiles declined 55-percent.

China's vast manufacturing sector, which employs tens of millions of workers and has functioned as the cheap labor workshop of the globe, also slowed dramatically as demand for its exports collapses in its major North American and European markets. About 20 million migrant workers, moving from villages to cities and factories have returned to the countryside, after losing their jobs because of the economic downturn. Beijing is warning that rising unemployment could fuel social unrest.

After growing at more than 10% a year for the past five-years, the Chinese economy's growth rate has fallen in every quarter since reaching an all-time high point of 12.7% in Q'2 of 2007. Growth rate slumped to 6.8% in Q'4 2008, which isn't fast enough to create jobs for this year's 7-million new entrants into the rural labor market, and would leave China with about 25-million jobless workers.

Still, China has internal resources - roughly $2-trillion in foreign currency reserves, to prevent a hard-landing for its economy, and has vowed to spend 4-trillion yuan on various infrastructure and social programs, over the next two-years, equal to 15% of its total economic output. Chinese premier, Wen Jiabao, said the goal of 8% growth this year, is "an attainable target through hard work. The harsh winter will be gone and spring is around the corner," he said.


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GOLD: THE PROTECTOR AND CREATOR OF JOBS - Must Read

Dear Member,

I urge you to read this article, to understand how us has cut their own wings.

GOLD: THE PROTECTOR AND CREATOR OF JOBS
Some readers may ask themselves, "What has gold to do with protecting jobs? Gold hoarders are certainly not creating jobs, and holding more gold will not help at all." Gold has everything to do with the loss of jobs in the US, and gold has everything to do with recovering jobs for the US economy. Let me go back to the 60's. During those years, the US and the world were on a Gold-and-Dollar Standard. Back in the 60's, countries were very careful about maintaining a constant monetary balance between their exports and their imports. They all wanted to be in a situation where they would export more than they imported, so that they would have increasing balances of gold or dollars in their Treasuries. To state this more correctly, they all wanted to export more than they imported, except the United States. The US didn't care very much about maintaining a balance between exports and imports, because the US was able to pay for its deficit in trade (more imports than exports) by simply sending more dollars overseas. Many economists warned about this trend, which was accompanied by a constant loss of gold during those years; some countries, notably France, refused to hold more and more dollars. The French asked for their gold – at $35 dollars an ounce – and this caused great disgust in Washington, D.C. and New York. Nothing was done to stop the trend. In 1971, Henry Hazlitt, a good conservative economist, warned that the dollar would have to be devalued – that it would be necessary to raise the number of dollars which would be needed to obtain an ounce of gold – some months before the dam broke and the US was faced with the need to devalue, because the US stock of gold had become much too small. What Mr. Hazlitt never imagined, was that instead of devaluing – which was the advice of economist Paul Samuelson, Nobel Prize winner, published the week before August 15, 1971 – Nixon followed the advice of Milton Friedman and simply "closed the gold window". The US would henceforth not deliver any gold, at any price, to any foreign Central Bank who might wish to invoke the right to redeem its dollars for gold, according to the Bretton Woods Agreement of 1944. Since that date, all world trade – or the better part of it – is carried on in dollars which are nothing more than fiat money. Since the rest of the world's currencies were tied to gold through the dollar, all the currencies of the world also became fiat money – fictitious money, backed by nothing. That includes the Euro, of course. What happened after that fateful date has overturned all order and harmony in economic relationships between the nations of the world. Countries around the world began to accumulate more and more dollars as credit expansion in the US went forward, implacably. Central Banks had to accumulate these dollars in their Reserves, whether they wanted to or not. (Not having sufficient dollars would force other countries to devalue and destroy savings. The US cannot run out of dollars, it manufactures them.) With no loss of gold to restrain the US and force it to stop expanding credit, US imports surged and exports waned. The monetary difference was "paid" in dollars. Free trade was extolled by the US; every country that wanted to be in the good graces of the US had to bow to "free trade". Free trade is a good thing – but not for a country that is providing the world's fiat money. This "free trade" was called "globalization", meaning that the US could, and did, buy everything it wanted in the world, in any amount, at any time, by simply paying dollars for it. There was no restraint to US credit expansion. It was a lovely time to be young and an American. However, free trade means you buy where it's cheapest, and the cheapest place to buy, in recent decades, was China , South East Asia and India ; the oil required to fuel the US economy was cheap and bought with dollars which it cost nothing to produce. Thousands upon thousands of products and floods of oil came across the oceans to the US, and also to Europe, which began to pay in Euros for some of its imports: Euros which also cost nothing to produce. US manufacturers, facing this competition from Asia, decided to move their factories to Asia instead of waiting for certain bankruptcy by competing against much lower-cost production. That was how the US was de-industrialized. It happened because gold was eliminated as a limit on credit expansion and money creation. Had Nixon not gone off gold in 1971, China would have taken generations to create its industrial base. It would have been necessary for China to accumulate capital slowly, because its exports to the US would have been limited by the need for the US to pay up with gold for the amount by which Chinese exports exceeded its imports from the US. The Chinese would have had to buy as much from the US, as they sold to the US; and since they were so terribly poor, there was not much they could have bought from the US. Their growth would have been slower, but they would not now be facing over 20 million unemployed, as their markets dry up. The US would never have allowed China to drain US gold from the Treasury by selling more to the US, than the US sold to China. But since payment was in fiat dollars and not in gold, the destructive effect of huge Chinese imports was not considered important by policy makers. And so, the US sailed into unemployment and had a great time doing it. Only now, that the party is over, are the grim facts visible: no jobs! Manufacturing is decimated. The fiat dollar – unanchored to gold – was the greatest strategic gift that the US could have made to China. Now, they have a huge industrial base and the US has Oh, so little! The damage is done. How to recover the industrial base of the US ? Not by slogans such as " Buy American ", nor by protectionism. What is required is to recover economic balance between the nations of the world so that they all can balance their exports with their imports. This is not done by protectionism, a false remedy to joblessness. The world needs to return to gold as the international means of payment. All imbalances must be paid, monthly, in gold. No fiat money "payment" allowed! If a nation does not have gold to export, it must do without or manufacture what it needs, itself: there you have the clue to restoring jobs in the US and in Europe. This is not "nationalism", it is simply good economics. The US has to limit its imports drastically, not by protectionism and tariffs, but by returning to the Gold Standard. Jobs will mushroom in the US beyond what anyone can dream as soon as its market must buy locally or not buy at all, for thousands upon thousands of articles. A return to gold, will achieve that aim very quickly, to be sure. The Gold Standard is the friend and protector of the worker and of the investor, as well as the basis for harmonious relations between the nations of the world. And by the way, the current financial disaster in the US is directly attributable to Nixon's decision to "close the gold window", because a monetary system based on gold is an obstacle to the criminal credit expansion perpetrated by the bankers. Gold based money puts shackles on bankers, forcing them to be careful. A fiat money system enables financial criminality – it's as effective in restraining criminality in finance as tying up a dog with a string of sausages.

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Commodity Daily

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Note- Members express their own view  & may be or may not be having investment or speculative positions in the commodity, please do not take it as buy or sell call, pl use  own judgments for buying or selling, after having discussion with your certified investment brokers or the person to whom u  have good level of confidence. once sentiment is changed from good to bad no good news work but bad news do work, investors must keep this in mind.
NEW INVESTORS SHOULD BE VERY CAREFUL.