Monday 20 July 2009

Indian Foodgrain Productions Update : Total foodgrain production increased from 230.77 mt in 2007-08 to 233.87 mt in 2008-09

Dear Subscribers,
 
New Delhi: India produced a record quantity of foodgrains in the last crop year at 233.87 million tonnes (mt), surpassing the previous high in 2007-08 by about 3 mt.
"Despite vicissitudes of weather, total food grain production increased from 230.77 mt in 2007-08 to 233.87 mt in 2008-09 as per the fourth advance estimates," minister of state for agriculture K.V. Thomas told the Rajya Sabha in a written reply last week.
PTI
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Delayed monsoon may lower rice output by 15%
New Delhi: Renowned agri-scientist M.S. Swaminathan said that a delayed monsoon has put India in a serious situation and scanty rains are likely to lower rice production by 15% this season.
Latest government data show the sowing of paddy across the country has fallen by 21% to 11.46 million ha as on 17 July, compared with 14.52 million ha in the year-ago period.
PTI

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Wednesday 8 July 2009

Chinese Government Wants To Purchase Another $80 Billion Of Gold!

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Chinese Government Wants To Purchase Another $80 Billion Of Gold!

ubs gold bars
By Patrick A. Heller June 30, 2009

Nine weeks ago, the Chinese government admitted to the mainstream media that it had added 14.6 million ounces of gold reserves from 2003 through 2009. For years before that disclosure, several of us non-mainstream media members had reported this activity to smaller audiences.

It wasn't until about June 9 that the mainstream media was told that the Chinese government was planning to purchase an additional huge quantity of gold. The information became public when U.S. Rep. Mark Kirk (R-Ill.) was interviewed on Fox News by Greta Van Susteren.

Kirk accompanied Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner on his trip to China in May. While the Chinese were laughing at Geithner during his speech at Beijing University for claiming that the U.S. dollar was strong (By the way, laughing at a speaker is a major social no-no in China, a sign that Geithner's comments were not respected at all!), Kirk was engaged in a private conversation with lesser Chinese officials. In this non-public discussion, Kirk was told that the Chinese were extremely concerned about the likely near term decline in the U.S. dollar because of the explosion of government debt. As part of the reaction to this concern, the Chinese government had established another reserve to stockpile petroleum and was planning to purchase another $80 billion of gold (about 85 million ounces at today's price level).

Kirk's revelation about the Chinese plan to purchase another $80 billion of gold was the very last comment in the interview. This extraordinary news received almost no coverage until last week when multiple hard-asset Web sites picked up the interview.

This information is not fresh news, even though the mainstream media did not report it until Kirk's interview. For instance, I discussed the substance of it in the April 28 edition of this column. Let me repeat the relevant paragraph for you:

"By the way, the way the Chinese government operates is not open and direct. Changes in policy are signaled by speeches or papers by lesser officials. And [as] has been shown repeatedly, when the Chinese government issues a statement that it is considering something such as purchasing gold, they really mean that they have already been actively doing it. It is entirely possible that China's central bank gold reserves are much higher than they now confirm."

So, when the Chinese, by their indirect method, disclosed that they plan to purchase another $80 billion of gold, you can just about guarantee two facts. First, the Chinese are already buying this gold. Second, the amount of gold planned to be purchased is larger than they stated.

How much is 85 million ounces of gold in relation to anything? The potential International Monetary Fund (IMF) gold sale that has been bantered about since 2002 as a means to knock down the price of gold is less than 13 million ounces. Annual worldwide gold mine production is roughly 60 million ounces. The Central Bank Gold Agreement, covering governments, central banks, and official organizations such as the IMF that hold about 80 percent of the world's official gold holdings, limits annual sales to 16.1 million ounces.

How can the Chinese accumulate this much more gold without the spot price rising significantly? The simple answer is that this is not possible. The price of gold is going to have to rise by a lot, much faster than mainstream financial experts want us to believe. The price will not rise in a straight line, but the longer you wait for any 'pullback' to offer a buying opportunity, the greater your risk that you might not be able to purchase anywhere close to current gold price levels.

This past weekend, I attended the International Paper Money Show in Memphis, Tenn. I was surprised how many dealers, whose livelihood does not involve trading gold at all, told me that they regularly read this column and have personally laid in a good stash of physical gold for their own protection.


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Monday 6 July 2009

India Budget - Commodities June 2009

Dear Members,

NEW DELHI: Union Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee has announced several commodity-friendly measures in the budget including withdrawal of Commodity Transaction Tax. (CTT) apart from the stated objective of raising agricultural growth to 4% by substantial increase in plan allocation and capital formation and increase in infrastructure investment to more than 9% of GDP.

These measures are expected to boost the agri-commodities, metals, cements and chemicals industries in the medium to long term and also add further impetus to stimulus packages already announced to boost growth.

"A very positive sign for Indian commodities market. Being in the nascent stage of development, abolition of CTT will reduce transaction costs in commodities trading, thereby the burden will come down and participation in these markets shall increase.CTT was to be introduced in the last budget and was causing concern in the growth of the Indian commodities market. This news of abolition of CTT has brought in great relief," according to Dinesh Thakkar, CMD of Angel Broking.

Anjani Sinha, Director, MCX, said, "The Budget  is visionary and good for the commodity markets, for which the government should be applauded with highest intensity. It will stimulate huge investment in the warehousing sector since the uncertainty of commodity market viability with respect to the cost of transaction (CTT) has been removed and now it will be at par with top 25 global commodities exchanges which constitute 99.99% of the world's exchange traded commodity derivative volume. This announcement will put Indian commodity market ecosystem at par with international exchanges with respect to cost of hedging, thereby fulfilling the government's vision of making Indian commodity derivative market competitive on a global canvass".

National Rural Employment Guarantee Act that provided employment to 4.47 crore households in 2008-09 has got a further fillip with allocation for the scheme raised to Rs 39,100 cr, a whopping increase of 144%. To increase the productivity of assets and resources under NREGA, convergence with other schemes relating to agriculture, forests, water resources, land resources and rural roads is being initiated, Finance Minister said.

The Budget has restored an eight percent Centre Excise duty on manmade fibre and yarn making ito on par with cotton sector.  The Minister has also reduced the customs duty on wool waste and cotton waste used in cheaper varieties of textile articles such as blankets and rugs to 10% from 15%.

Gold Bars, Silver
Customs duty on gold bars have been hiked to Rs 200 per 10 gm from Rs 100 while other forms of gold excluding jewellery will be levied at the rate of Rs 500 per 10 grams against existing rate of Rs 250. Silver will charged at Rs 1000 per kg as against existing Rs 500.

One mega handloom cluster each in West Bengal and Tamil Nadu and one powerloom mega cluster in Rajasthan have been announced..The minister said that the earlier tow the two mega handloom clusters at Varanasi and Sibsagar and two mega powerloom clusters at Erode and Bhiwandi are under successful implementation..These will generate job opportunities and income. The government also intends to add new mega clusters for Carpets in Srinagar (J&K) and Mirzapur (UP).

Financial inclusion
As a result of financial inclusion initiatives by scheduled commercial banks -3.3 crore no-frill accounts were opened. To develop banking network in unbanked or underbanked areas, a Sub-committee of State Level Bankers Committee will identify such areas and formulate an action plan to bring them under banking network within 3 years, the Minister said. A budget allocation of Rs.100 crore during the current year as one-time grant-in-aid has been made to ensure provision of at least one centre/Point of Sales (POS) for banking services in each of the unbanked blocks in the country.

The RBI has announced a further relaxation in its Branch Authorisation Policy. Scheduled Commercial Banks are now allowed to set up off-site ATMs without prior approval, subject to reporting.

Exports
The adjustment assistance scheme to provide enhanced Export Credit and Guarantee Corporation (ECGC) cover at 95 percent of badly hit sectors have been extended to March 2010.

The allocation for Market Development Assistance Scheme provides support to exporters in developing new markets has been raised by 148% to Rs 124 cr. The interest subvention scheme of 2 percent on pre-shipment credit for seven sectors—textiles including handlooms, handicrafts, carpets, leather, gems and jewellery, marine products and small and medium exporters has been extend till March 31, 2010.

Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) have been affected by the slowdown in exports and the indirect effect of the global crisis on domestic demand. To support this them credit flow will be ensured by providing a special fund out of Rural Infrastructure Development Fund (RIDF) to Small Industries Development Bank (SIDBI), Pranab Mukherjee said. This fund of Rs.4,000 crore will incentivise Banks and State Finance Corporations (SFCs) to lend to Micro and Small Enterprises (MSEs) by refinancing 50 per cent of incremental lending to MSEs during the current financial year.

Nutrient-Based Subsidy .
To ensure balanced application of fertilizers, the Government intends to move towards a nutrient based subsidy regime instead of the current product pricing regime, Pranab Mukherjee said. It will lead to availability of innovative fertilizer products in the market at reasonable prices. This unshackling of the fertilizer manufacturing sector is expected to attract fresh investments in this sector. In due course it is also intended to move to a system of direct transfer of subsidy to the farmers.

Agriculture
The one-time bank loan waiver of nearly Rs.71,000 crore to cover an estimated 40 million farmers was one of the major highlights of the last Budget. This scheme has been extended to 31 December 2009. A task force will be set up to study the problem of indebtedness among Maharasthra farmers due to credit availed from money lenders and therefore not coming under the loan waiver scheme.

Finance Minister had made an additional Rs.1,000 crore allocation over Interim BE for the Accelerated Irrigation Benefit Programme (AIBP), marking an increase of 75 per cent over the allocation in 2008-09(BE). The allocation for the Rashtriya Krishi Vikas Yojna (RKVY) is also being stepped up by 30 per cent over Budget Estimates of 2008-09.

Agriculture has been the mainstay of our economy with 60 per cent of our population Agriculture credit flow was Rs.2,87,000 crore in 2008-09. The target for agriculture credit flow for the year 2009-10 is being set at Rs.3,25,000 crore. To achieve this, the Minister has proposed to continue the interest subvention scheme for short term crop loans to farmers for loans upto Rs.3 lakh per farmer at the interest rate of 7 per cent per annum. Thereby effective interest rate for farmers will come down to 6%. An additional budget allocation of Rs 411 crore over interim budget is being made.

Power
Allocation for Accelerated Power Development and Reform Programme (APDRP) has been  increased to Rs 2,080 crore, an increase of 160% over interim budget. Minister also announced reduction of the basic customs duty on permanent magnets - a critical component for Wind Operated Electricity Generators - from 7.5 per cent to 5 per cent

Government will evolve a blue print for long distance gas highways leading to National Gas Grid facilitating transportation of gas across the country.

India Infrastructure Finance Company Limited (IIFCL) set up as a special purpose vehicle for providing long term financial assistance to infrastructure projects will be strengthened to fulfill its mandate, the Minister said.

Bio-Fuel
In order to encourage the use of this environment friendly fuel and augment its availability in the country, Government will reduce basic customs duty on bio-diesel from 7.5 per cent to 2.5 per cent - at par with petro-diesel. Biodiesel obtained from vegetable oils and used for blending with petro-diesel, is currently exempt from excise duty. From now on petro-diesel blended with bio-diesel will also be exempted from excise duty.

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Note- Members express their own view  & may be or may not be having investment or speculative positions in the commodity, please do not take it as buy or sell call, pl use  own judgments for buying or selling, after having discussion with your certified investment brokers or the person to whom u  have good level of confidence. once sentiment is changed from good to bad no good news work but bad news do work, investors must keep this in mind.
NEW INVESTORS SHOULD BE VERY CAREFUL.

Saturday 4 July 2009

Central Banks Buying Gold

Central Banks Buying Gold

The IMF will likely find eager buyers for all of those ounces of gold that they continually threaten to dump on the market. Not only have we seen foreign governments such as China and Russia increasing their gold reserves lately, but Forbes just reported the following:

Central banks may be justified in increasing their gold holdings to 40-50 percent of their reserves, a senior executive of the industry-funded World Gold Council said on Thursday.

'Central banks are justified in having high gold weightings. They are justified in having a 40-50 percent weighting in gold,' Marcus Grubb, WGC's managing director of investment, research and marketing told delegates at a conference organised by ETF Securities.
Article Control

He said the current macroeconomic environment supported gold buying: 'It is not only about the dollar, not only about diversification, but also about future inflation,' he said.

There were signs that a number of Asian central banks were adding to their gold reserves, he added.

So while the manipulators are trying their hardest to keep a cap on the advancing price of gold, the cumulative buying power of central banks, foreign governments and ETF investors looks ready to soak up any sales. Of course, most of the threats to sell IMF gold are just that and rarely come to fruition. While gold is a clear threat to those clinging to the power afforded them by their printing presses, it is becoming increasingly difficult to perpetuate the manipulation. Investors are wising up as fewer and fewer consider trading their physical metal with intrinsic value for paper promises backed by nothing but faith in corrupt and bankrupt governments.

The charade can only last so long and with each day passing, I feel we are getting closer to the day of reckoning. Whether this comes in the form of a Comex default or other unforeseen event, wealth will at some point rush back into precious metals and overwhelm the relatively small market, pushing gold to levels hard to conceive at current prices. The next advance above $1,000 is likely to hold for good as gold soars towards inflation-adjusted highs of $2,300 and bids farewell to 3-digit pricing.

It will continue to be extremely profitable to trade gold stocks and futures, but investors would be wise to convert those profits into physical coins and bullion, thus acquiring financial insurance free of cost. Take delivery and put the manipulators out of business.

Nothing will unnerve the paper gold shorts more quickly and do more to undercut their confidence than to strip them of the real metal and force them to come up with more hard gold bullion to make good on deliveries. "Stand and Deliver or Go Home" should be the rallying cry of the gold longs to the paper gold shorts. –Trader Dan Norcini


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Note- Members express their own view & may be or may not be having investment or speculative positions in the commodity, please do not take it as buy or sell call, pl use own judgments for buying or selling, after having discussion with your certified investment brokers or the person to whom u have good level of confidence. once sentiment is changed from good to bad no good news work but bad news do work, investors must keep this in mind.
NEW INVESTORS SHOULD BE VERY CAREFUL.